Trading Away Development? A Critical Interrogation of Nigeria-China Trade Relations (2015–2024)

Abstract

This study critically examines Nigeria–China trade relations and their developmental implications between 2015 and 2024. Persistent concerns over Nigeria’s widening trade deficit, reliance on crude oil and primary commodities, and the growing dominance of Chinese manufactured imports frame the analysis. Grounded in dependency theory, which explains unequal economic interactions between core and peripheral states, the study adopts an ex post facto design and qualitative documentary analysis of official trade statistics, international datasets, and peer‑reviewed literature to evaluate the structure and evolution of bilateral trade flows. Findings reveal that although trade expanded significantly, its composition remained asymmetrical: Nigeria’s exports were dominated by crude petroleum, liquefied natural gas, and raw materials, while imports from China consisted largely of machinery, electronics, textiles, and other manufactured goods. This pattern sustained a persistent imbalance, constrained opportunities for value addition, and reinforced structural challenges of technological dependence, industrial vulnerability, and limited integration into global value chains. The analysis suggests that trade composition, rather than volume, is central to understanding developmental consequences. The study concludes that while Nigeria benefits from market access and affordable goods, the dominant trade pattern reflected dependency dynamics that did not support long‑term industrial transformation.